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Cockles form a large proportion of the living organisms in the Inlet and changes in the cockle population are therefore a useful indicator of the biological health of the Inlet. In 1976 the former Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR) surveyed the cockles as part of the Pāuatahanui Environmental Programme. The survey found that at that time cockles made up 80% of the biomass of the intertidal mudflat animals. In parts of the Inlet, cockle density reached 2500 per square metre.
No further surveys were done until 1992. In that year, the Guardians of Pāuatahanui Inlet carried out the first of the regular surveys that have taken place every three years since. The Inlet environment had for some years been under threat from human activities, and GOPI was concerned that no credible measures of what was happening to the Inlet's ecosystems existed. Monitoring the size and age structure of the intertidal cockle population was known to be such a measure, and GOPI decided to adopt this measure, and to survey the cockles every three years. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) designed a method suitable for volunteer labour that would produce data comparable with the DSIR survey, and also analysed the data collected. The three-yearly surveys, which continue to use the method designed by NIWA, are supported by Greater Wellington Regional Council, and the data continues to be analysed by NIWA.
From 1992 to 2001 the population varied between 35% and 50% of the 1976 figure. But from 2001 there has been a steady rise to the 2013 figure of 65%. That's great news, but the really exciting result is the way in which the numbers appear to be growing. The shape of the curve on the graph below gives us hope that the increase since 2001 is exponential and will continue on that track. The long time series of data now available clearly shows that the intertidal cockle population is recovering from the severe downturn noted between 1976 and 1992.

The proportion of juveniles (up to one year old and up to 10 mm in length) in the population has differed widely between surveys. In 1976 they formed 9% of the population, but at 12-16% the proportion in the 2004-2013 surveys was much higher. In contrast, 1998 and 2001 were poor years for the recruitment of juveniles into the population. The very low proportions in 1992 and 1995 must be disregarded as the methods of sampling juveniles were less accurate than those used in 1976 and since 1998.

We don't know why there is fluctuation but similar ambiguous patterns are a common occurrence in bivalve molluscs world wide. The most likely major factor is a cooler than normal sea temperature during the breeding season depressing the production of eggs and sperm and, possibly, survival of the planktonic larvae. In Auckland the colder sea conditions resulting from El Nino years in 1991 and 1992 have been suggested as a cause of the lack of cockle breeding success in those years.
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